Most Exit Poll Predicts Big Win for NDA

Exit polls do not always get it right.

New Delhi: Exit polls are forecasting a historic third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the final phase of the Lok Sabha election concludes. Despite strong predictions, none of the exit polls place the NDA at its aspirational 400-seat mark out of 543, nor the BJP at its target of 370 seats. The INDIA bloc is also expected to fall short of the 285 seats predicted by Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge.

An aggregate of six exit polls suggests the NDA will secure 357 seats and the INDIA bloc 148 seats. Specifically, the BJP is projected to win 327 seats, while Congress is expected to secure 52 seats. The highest forecast for the NDA comes from Jan ki Baat, predicting 362-392 seats, while the lowest comes from Dainik Bhaskar, predicting 281-350 seats for the NDA and 145-201 seats for the INDIA bloc.

The exit polls unanimously indicate the NDA’s improved performance in the south and Bengal. In Andhra Pradesh, the NDA’s alliance with Chandrababu Naidu is predicted to win 18 of 25 seats. Karnataka is also expected to favor the BJP, despite the Congress’s state-level preference. In Telangana, the BJP is predicted to win over half of the state’s 17 seats.

The BJP is also expected to gain seats in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, with predictions of at least two seats in Tamil Nadu and one in Kerala. In Bengal, the BJP is forecasted to increase its 2019 score from 18 to 22 seats, surpassing the Trinamool Congress for the first time.

The BJP will continue to dominate in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi. The Aam Aadmi Party and Congress are predicted to fail to win any seats in Delhi.

In Bihar, changes are expected with the Opposition alliance potentially taking seven seats from the NDA, which previously won 39 out of 40 seats. The Opposition is also predicted to gain three seats in Haryana and a few in Rajasthan.

Exit polls have a history of inaccuracies, but the consensus points towards a strong showing for the NDA and an overall improvement in regions such as the south and Bengal.

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